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I’m not sure what to make of this. “Lots of distributions give you straight-ish lines on a log-log plot” (http://bactra.org/weblog/491.html) so it isn’t surprising that the slopes of the lines are somewhat constant over time.

Because taking the logarithm is such an equalizing operator, I also doubt whether it is surprising that lines seem to overlap for each country. Zooming in, there still is a difference of about 20% in new cases/total reported cases between countries, even in the range of 5k-10k total confirmed cases. Taken over the course of multiple days, that can make quite a difference.



The graph doesn't make much sense without a bit of explanation. (It certainly didn't to me, anyway.) The minutephysics video linked to from cptroot's comment, and also here [1] for your convenience, does a great job of that.

In short, you're right it's not surprising that the lines are log-log linear for uncontrolled growth of the virus, and that it's similar for lot of countries. What's interesting is the few (so far) cases where it drops below that log-log linear line, which indicates a containment strategy that's starting to work.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc


But that containment strategy isn't working for Italy at all.


It takes at least 2 weeks until the number of deaths starts to decrease. Look at the graph in the weeks to come and you will notice the difference.


They’ve started containment 9th March, how is that now two weeks ago?


> “Lots of distributions give you straight-ish lines on a log-log plot”

I agree. I don't remember the last time I've seen a log-log plot that doesn't look linear. I've never found a lot of use in them for actually illuminating much.




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