The graph is supposed to show mortality vs the 'baseline' (good question how exactly that's calculated, looks like it's probably this one: https://www.euromomo.eu/methods/methods.html).
It shows the impact of prior flu seasons. Winter of 2016 was very bad. 2017 not quite as bad. 2018 about the same. 2019 .... gone. Trend line is below baseline and very significantly so up until the start of COVID-19. There was practically no flu season this year, which means a LOT of people survived the winter who in prior years wouldn't have done.
The problem is Corriere is ignoring that in their analysis. Deaths may be higher than expected now, but how much of that is because it was much lower than expected before?
I suspect in the next week or so you'll start seeing people doing integration on the graphs to try and figure out what the excess 'vulnerable population' was at the start of the epidemic; i.e. people who would in other years have been taken out by flu but survived this year.
The red trend line will shoot up of course. You can see the latest data point all the way at the top right, it's nearly falling off the image.
NB: They've since updated the graph in the PDF with a slightly different one. Oddly, the wildly high data point at the end is now gone (wtf) and the COVID-19 period is shaded blue.
Italian death statistics show nothing out of the ordinary at this time. If it's true their infection levels are now stable I don't see how these figures can take the absolutely massive acceleration required to justify current measures. It's still less bad than the flu of 2017.
It shows the impact of prior flu seasons. Winter of 2016 was very bad. 2017 not quite as bad. 2018 about the same. 2019 .... gone. Trend line is below baseline and very significantly so up until the start of COVID-19. There was practically no flu season this year, which means a LOT of people survived the winter who in prior years wouldn't have done.
The problem is Corriere is ignoring that in their analysis. Deaths may be higher than expected now, but how much of that is because it was much lower than expected before?
I suspect in the next week or so you'll start seeing people doing integration on the graphs to try and figure out what the excess 'vulnerable population' was at the start of the epidemic; i.e. people who would in other years have been taken out by flu but survived this year.
The red trend line will shoot up of course. You can see the latest data point all the way at the top right, it's nearly falling off the image.