Programming is becoming more complicated over time. The increase in complexity will offset the increased availability of basic literacy
Is it? Python will do in a few lines what would take forty lines in Fortran. I was programming for the Mac in 1995, when you'd spend thousands of lines just trying to get the machine to do things which a new Xcode project now does by default without any lines of code.
No doubt Python is more expressive than Fortran. Programming languages, tools, and software engineering has gotten better.
If we were write the same software as 30 years ago, it would be an easier job. But we aren't. We have more powerful processors, more memory, more data and more connectivity. The kind of software that is in demand now is more complex than the software from 30 years ago.
People develop to the limits of their technologies and their own ability. Smarter technologies allow us to make much more complex apps, which require more effort. I don't have to create my own windowing framework anymore, but that doesn't mean I'm not still working to the limits of my ability 20 years later.
Is it? Python will do in a few lines what would take forty lines in Fortran. I was programming for the Mac in 1995, when you'd spend thousands of lines just trying to get the machine to do things which a new Xcode project now does by default without any lines of code.