He genuinely made a case for a better valuation, but the case was on its face ridiculous. Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't his idea that there is some big digital play for gamestop? Which...sure..maybe with huge investments, but they'd be going up against the stores already built into the major consoles and mobile devices, and then the number of major game stores available for a PC. I'll wager 1 GME: Gamestop will never be a major digital player and DFV's thesis was wrong.
No, the original thesis was solely to survive another console cycle. As I said elsewhere, the 2020 valuation implied Gamestop defaulting on it's debt in 2021, because most analysts didn't even expect gen5 consoles to have an optical drive. It all blew through the roof when Ryan Cohen stepped in and speculation on Gamestop entering new markets started.
The 2020 valuation implied that it's very likely Gamestop won't ever make much profit again, whether it bankrupts next year or 20, if it never makes profit the stock is worth $0. And as we've seen through the cycle, this was actually true. Gamestop hasn't made an annual profit in over 3 years. With this "undervalued" gaming cycle you talk about, they made $80m in a quarter which they promptly blew in losses the next quarter and are increasingly losing money, to the tune of $100m/quarter. Instead of a typical small cap value company that is making 15 P/E, Gamestop is doing the opposite and losing that much money, -15 P/E, in a dying, declining growth business. Feel free to buy shares for $100, where every year they give you $94 value back, to sell physical copies of video games... Those are the actual fundamentals.
Gamestop stock value represents a lottery ticket that they will ever make some money again. It's not worth much.
> whether it bankrupts next year or 20, if it never makes profit the stock is worth $0.
A business is at least worth it's liquidation value at any time. And $GME was trading near liquidation value. Feel free to read up on Cigar Butt Investing if interested.
> A business is at least worth it's liquidation value at any time.
Only if majority shareholders will actually liquidate. If they are set on a futile attempt to light the money on fire, you don't have that $100 you lent your cousin Johnny to start his door-to-door knife selling business anymore...
It is actually astonishing how much GME/WSB'ers have continuously gotten wrong from this saga and keep trucking along in cognitive dissonance: alleged Robinhood + Citadel collusion, not understanding DTCC collateral requirements spike, short sellers / "wall street" covering and going bankrupt anyday now... First QAnon, then most of these WSB'ers probably derided QAnon'ers imaginary conspiracy world, only to jump on board the same flavor a months later?? Internet is doing some damage.
All my comments were in regard to the original thesis by Roaring Kitty, that it should trade at least in the $20s instead of below $5. I don't understand why you keep making references to current price and the resulted community, which we can agree is full of BS.
