That looks like a canonical "how we are doing" for the trade. You may find it surprising that us civilians find that chart a bit tricky to understand.
The graph I was shown was more of a "lies to children" job (a Sir Terry Pratchett term for simplification of a concept to enable teaching to happen). It looked more like a somewhat lumpy y=a/log(bt) where a and b are not 1.
I'm just a simple IT bod what studied a fair bit of engineering and a smattering of science back in the day. That graph looks like it forgot to put it's bloody knickers on. The one in the paper https://arxiv.org/pdf/2105.10954.pdf is a bit closer to what I remember.
I do feel that we can relax the 25 year rule a bit these days. I think we can quite confidently allow 20 years and I'm quite cautiously going to suggest 15 instead.
SimCity says humanity unlocks fusion power plants by 2050, and I always thought that was as reasonable an estimate as any. Based on page 5, it looks like we should have reliable fusion in the lab by 2040, and give that 5-10 years to scale up to production plants widely available. Hopefully Will Wright turns out to be pessimistic and we break through before then!
The graph I was shown was more of a "lies to children" job (a Sir Terry Pratchett term for simplification of a concept to enable teaching to happen). It looked more like a somewhat lumpy y=a/log(bt) where a and b are not 1.
I'm just a simple IT bod what studied a fair bit of engineering and a smattering of science back in the day. That graph looks like it forgot to put it's bloody knickers on. The one in the paper https://arxiv.org/pdf/2105.10954.pdf is a bit closer to what I remember.
I do feel that we can relax the 25 year rule a bit these days. I think we can quite confidently allow 20 years and I'm quite cautiously going to suggest 15 instead.