Dealerships (maintenance and new sales), Oil/Exhaust/Brake, and Gas stations will decimated -- as car owners no longer have a system that neglect (oil, coolant, high temp exhaust, high temp seals and sensors) causes an end of life event.
At most, battery packs will be neglected when cars sit, but vehicles today with a the sensors and systems that run lithium ion batteries safely will reduce many of the impacts of neglect.
But mostly new sales, even used market sales; the interior will be the primary part of a vehicle that ages (ignoring the effect of salt on roads)
EVs still use oil and coolant though just that the oil never needs changing. And EVs still have issues needing you to go to the service. My mate had to take his ID.3 to the service 3 times due to SW issues. EVs aren't immune from issues.
Software (plugging in a cable and a computer) and other 100k+ mile (suspension) if not lifetime (battery coolant or oil, airbag recall) seem seldom and low rate activities not enough to keep a dealership service department running.
Tesla is often solving these with mobile mechanics and regional service centers.
People only focus on the ICE engine itself as being the need to go to the service, but there's other shit that can go wrong in a car, no matter if it's ICE or EV, like window lifters, locks, tailgate, bumper changes, door changes, mirrors, suspension, heated $WHATEVER, one of the dozens of ECUs or sensors getting faulty, plus anything damaged from the usual fender bender or curb mounting. You'll still need to go to a service for those.
And ICE cars will not magically disappear overnight off the roads though. Service centers still have at least 20+ years of work for them of ICE + EV combined. It should be enough to plan your business accordingly like selling it or pivoting to something else if you think the EV future is too low margin for that business.
The wear items you mentioned are going to be rare occurrences, ie once every 50/100k miles.
Versus oil changes get customers in the shop every 5-10k miles / 1 year; Coolant changes every 2-5 years. The best analog is tire changes on Evs.
Yes, collision shops will still be needed, but are rarely a direct dealer service (the majority of dealers do not have paint shops).
The top mechanical issues; Engines (from oil change negligence), and transmissions will no longer exist in the drivetrain. (Sensor failure will be relatively minimal as no sensors are exposed to constant 200 degree heat or oil or gasoline).
From a duration perspective; dealers may support 100k mile, 10 year warranties, but when we see 50% EV adoption, it will be like finding obsolete ford parts from the 50s in no time for 10+ year old vehicles.
