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Writing the Obvious

3nm finally going mainstream. Zen 5 and Zen 5C coming. Resurgence of Mini LED ( or basically LCD ) and is taking more market share in large size TV, not completely dominated by OLED as previously thought. ARM Cortex X5 finally catching up to Apple M2 / M3 in terms of IPC. x86 on Server remains strong, even though AWS is moving to everything Graviton. We may have seen the cheapest NAND and DRAM in the next 2-3 years ( and dare I say next 5 years ) and they will rebound to or at least stay a roughly current price especially NAND.

World Overview

Hong Kong and Mainland China officially enters into recession, we may see the rest of the world follows either in late 2024 or 2025. For a lot of people, this will be their first taste of recessions. Large part of the world enjoy stable growth since 2008. This one could be ugly.

UK Still trying to figure out whether it has officially Brexited or not. And still haven’t figure out its place on the International market. As they continued to “levelled-down”.

Taiwan will still be safe. Hot War still on-going. ( God I wish I am wrong ).

Full Manufacturing Chain forming just outside of China. South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam. And India. Japanese Manufacturing back in full force. MIJ to become a thing again.

There may be another pandemic coming from China.

Others and Wishful Thinkings

FreeBSD usage picking up.

I can finally register a .web domain name.

We see the Fall of All Big Tech apart from Microsoft. And Windows 12 may be surprisingly well designed.

The world see more appreciation for Nim 2.0, Zig, Ada and Crystal.

Ruby Rails makes a come back.

More frontend moving to Turbo / LiveView like development. Browser makers finally cares more about interactive web page rather than full blown web apps.

JPEG XL gains momentum, and hopefully a video codec based on it.

GPU design that put more focus on Nanite.

x266 releases, along with official VVC decoding in FFMpeg.

The return of AirPort Extreme with WiFi 7. And Time Capsule for iOS.

5Gbps Ethernet becomes the norm replacing 1Gbps AND 2.5Gbps.

We are still no where near Lv 5 AV or AGI but we see continuous improvement with ChatGPT and Generative AI.

Rapid switching to 5G so we are all better off.

The world finally give more respect to Technology outside of Software or Silicon Valley. i.e Technology that is not Software. From BioTech, ArgiTech, FoodTech, Construction Tech.

With the introduction of VisionPro, VR. The whole software industry finally put “latency” on their mind map. Everything right now is painfully slow.

And finally. Find time to work on my project and show it on HN.



I don’t see China officially entering into recession even if they enter into one unofficially. Each time a recession has happened in the past since 1990 or so, it was not acknowledged and the only clue that they realized it at all would be the talk about “economic recovery” afterwards.


What's your reasoning for late 2024/2025 for the recession? That's oddly specific




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